1999 NBA Draft Revisited: Mock vs Actual vs Hindsight
Compare the historical mock market, the actual first round, and a full-career hindsight board for the 1999 NBA Draft.
1999 had obvious star power up top, but the real shape of the class changed dramatically with later values. Manu Ginobili at 57 and Andrei Kirilenko at 24 are the classic reminders that draft-night position and eventual career value can separate quickly.
This version follows the full Mock vs Actual vs Hindsight standard. For every first-round slot, the article compares the historical mock baseline, the player a team actually drafted, and the player the hindsight board would place there after full careers are known.
The historical baseline is The Draft Review 15-mock archive. The comparison verdict asks whether the actual overall pick matched, preceded or followed that player's median projected slot. It does not grade the quality of the pick or imply a team-specific prediction. The sequential hindsight board remains an editorial judgment about full careers.
Three-timeline overview
How to read the mock baseline: The Draft Review orders its archive by median projected pick, with average pick as a tiebreaker. Its consensus rank labels, including A/B groups, are separate from projected pick numbers. Each row below shows the actual selection's archive rank, median projected slot, earliest-to-latest projection band and number of mocks listing that player. Medians can be fractional and exclude mocks that omit the player. A missing projection is reported explicitly.
Using actual overall pick equal to median projected slot as the definition of a match, 10 of 29 first-round selections matched; 12 came earlier and 6 later. 1 selection has no archived projection. This is a slot comparison, not a claim that all mocks or a particular team agreed.
| Pick | Team | Actual player's archived mock profile | Actual pick | Sequential hindsight pick | Mock slot comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bulls | Archive rank 1; median slot 1; band 1–5; 15/15 mocks | Elton Brand | Manu Ginobili | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 2 | Vancouver Grizzlies | Archive rank 2; median slot 2; band 1–3; 15/15 mocks | Steve Francis | Shawn Marion | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 3 | Charlotte Hornets | Archive rank 3; median slot 3; band 3–4; 15/15 mocks | Baron Davis | Elton Brand | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 4 | Los Angeles Clippers | Archive rank 4; median slot 4; band 1–7; 15/15 mocks | Lamar Odom | Andrei Kirilenko | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | Archive rank 6-A; median slot 7; band 5–9; 15/15 mocks | Jonathan Bender | Ron Artest | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 6 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Archive rank 5; median slot 6; band 4–7; 15/15 mocks | Wally Szczerbiak | Baron Davis | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 7 | Washington Wizards | Archive rank 6-B; median slot 7; band 6–11; 15/15 mocks | Richard Hamilton | Lamar Odom | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 8 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Archive rank 7; median slot 8; band 5–10; 15/15 mocks | Andre Miller | Jason Terry | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 9 | Phoenix Suns | Archive rank 11-B; median slot 13; band 9–25; 15/15 mocks | Shawn Marion | Andre Miller | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 10 | Atlanta Hawks | Archive rank 9; median slot 10; band 8–17; 15/15 mocks | Jason Terry | Richard Hamilton | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 11 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Archive rank 15-B; median slot 19.5; band 18–24; 14/15 mocks | Trajan Langdon | Steve Francis | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 12 | Toronto Raptors | Archive rank 10; median slot 12; band 9–19; 15/15 mocks | Aleksandar Radojevic | Corey Maggette | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 13 | Seattle SuperSonics | Archive rank 8; median slot 9; band 2–13; 15/15 mocks | Corey Maggette | Wally Szczerbiak | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 14 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Archive rank 12-A; median slot 14; band 5–20; 15/15 mocks | Will Avery | James Posey | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 15 | New York Knicks | Archive rank 15-A; median slot 19.5; band 15–27; 14/15 mocks | Frederic Weis | Jeff Foster | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 16 | Chicago Bulls | Archive rank 11-A; median slot 13; band 11–16; 15/15 mocks | Ron Artest | Kenny Thomas | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 17 | Atlanta Hawks | Archive rank 19-B; median slot 23; band 21–29; 7/15 mocks | Cal Bowdler | Devean George | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 18 | Denver Nuggets | Archive rank 14; median slot 17; band 13–21; 15/15 mocks | James Posey | Jumaine Jones | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 19 | Utah Jazz | Archive rank 17-A; median slot 21; band 14–29; 14/15 mocks | Quincy Lewis | Scott Padgett | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 20 | Atlanta Hawks | Archive rank 17-C; median slot 21; band 17–25; 9/15 mocks | Dion Glover | Jonathan Bender | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 21 | Golden State Warriors | Archive rank 26-A; median slot 28; band 28–29; 3/15 mocks | Jeff Foster | Tim James | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 22 | Houston Rockets | Archive rank 23-A; median slot 25.5; band 21–28; 8/15 mocks | Kenny Thomas | Lee Nailon | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 23 | Los Angeles Lakers | Archive rank 23-B; median slot 25.5; band 25–29; 6/15 mocks | Devean George | Trajan Langdon | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 24 | Utah Jazz | Archive rank 25-B; median slot 27; band 27–28; 3/15 mocks | Andrei Kirilenko | Quincy Lewis | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 25 | Miami Heat | Archive rank 17-B; median slot 21; band 17–27; 13/15 mocks | Tim James | Vonteego Cummings | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 26 | Indiana Pacers | Archive rank 25-A; median slot 27; band 21–29; 6/15 mocks | Vonteego Cummings | Dion Glover | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 27 | Atlanta Hawks | Archive rank 13-A; median slot 16; band 11–21; 15/15 mocks | Jumaine Jones | Michael Ruffin | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 28 | Utah Jazz | Archive rank 16; median slot 20; band 19–27; 9/15 mocks | Scott Padgett | Cal Bowdler | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 29 | San Antonio Spurs | No projection in the archived 15 mocks | Leon Smith | Leon Smith | NO ARCHIVED PROJECTION |
Mock Draft Scorecard
| Actual pick versus mock median | First-round selections |
|---|---|
| PICK MATCHED MEDIAN | 10 |
| PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN | 12 |
| PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN | 6 |
| NO ARCHIVED PROJECTION | 1 |
Pick-by-pick: Mock vs Actual vs Hindsight
No. 1: Chicago Bulls
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 1; median slot 1; band 1–5; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Elton Brand SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Manu Ginobili COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 1 matched the median projected slot of 1. 9 of 15 listed mocks placed Elton Brand at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Chicago Bulls was making a franchise-level choice, so the argument for Elton Brand centered on star upside, perceived safety, and who could become the face of the rebuild fastest.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Manu Ginobili into this slot because of massive surplus value, championship-level impact, and one of the best later-pick outcomes ever. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Elton Brand ranks No. 3 in this class.
No. 2: Vancouver Grizzlies
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 2; median slot 2; band 1–3; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Steve Francis SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Shawn Marion COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 2 matched the median projected slot of 2. 7 of 15 listed mocks placed Steve Francis at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Vancouver Grizzlies was making a franchise-level choice, so the argument for Steve Francis centered on star upside, perceived safety, and who could become the face of the rebuild fastest.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Shawn Marion into this slot because of elite two-way utility, durable peak seasons, and portable winning value. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Steve Francis ranks No. 11 in this class.
No. 3: Charlotte Hornets
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 3; median slot 3; band 3–4; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Baron Davis SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Elton Brand COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 3 matched the median projected slot of 3. 10 of 15 listed mocks placed Baron Davis at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Charlotte Hornets was making a franchise-level choice, so the argument for Baron Davis centered on star upside, perceived safety, and who could become the face of the rebuild fastest.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Elton Brand into this slot because of strong peak production and clear franchise-level value at his best. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Baron Davis ranks No. 6 in this class.
No. 4: Los Angeles Clippers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 4; median slot 4; band 1–7; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Lamar Odom SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Andrei Kirilenko COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 4 matched the median projected slot of 4. 6 of 15 listed mocks placed Lamar Odom at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
At this point in the lottery, Los Angeles Clippers was still searching for a long-term core piece. Lamar Odom looked like a clean answer either because of ceiling, positional need, or both.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Andrei Kirilenko into this slot because of high-end defensive versatility and rare two-way impact for his slot. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Lamar Odom ranks No. 7 in this class.
No. 5: Toronto Raptors
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 6-A; median slot 7; band 5–9; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Jonathan Bender SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Ron Artest COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 5 was 2 places earlier than the median projected slot of 7. 7 of 15 listed mocks placed Jonathan Bender at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
At this point in the lottery, Toronto Raptors was still searching for a long-term core piece. Jonathan Bender looked like a clean answer either because of ceiling, positional need, or both.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Ron Artest into this slot because of Defensive Player of the Year caliber value with major two-way wing utility. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Jonathan Bender ranks No. 20 in this class.
No. 6: Minnesota Timberwolves
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 5; median slot 6; band 4–7; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Wally Szczerbiak SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Baron Davis COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 6 matched the median projected slot of 6. 8 of 15 listed mocks placed Wally Szczerbiak at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
At this point in the lottery, Minnesota Timberwolves was still searching for a long-term core piece. Wally Szczerbiak looked like a clean answer either because of ceiling, positional need, or both.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Baron Davis into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Wally Szczerbiak ranks No. 13 in this class.
No. 7: Washington Wizards
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 6-B; median slot 7; band 6–11; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Richard Hamilton SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Lamar Odom COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 7 matched the median projected slot of 7. 8 of 15 listed mocks placed Richard Hamilton at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
At this point in the lottery, Washington Wizards was still searching for a long-term core piece. Richard Hamilton looked like a clean answer either because of ceiling, positional need, or both.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Lamar Odom into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Richard Hamilton ranks No. 10 in this class.
No. 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 7; median slot 8; band 5–10; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Andre Miller SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Jason Terry COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 8 matched the median projected slot of 8. 4 of 15 listed mocks placed Andre Miller at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
At this point in the lottery, Cleveland Cavaliers was still searching for a long-term core piece. Andre Miller looked like a clean answer either because of ceiling, positional need, or both.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Jason Terry into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Andre Miller ranks No. 9 in this class.
No. 9: Phoenix Suns
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 11-B; median slot 13; band 9–25; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Shawn Marion SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Andre Miller COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 9 was 4 places earlier than the median projected slot of 13. 4 of 15 listed mocks placed Shawn Marion at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
This range of the draft often rewards teams that separate real NBA skills from college reputation. Phoenix Suns chose Shawn Marion because the role projection looked believable on draft night.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Andre Miller into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Shawn Marion ranks No. 2 in this class.
No. 10: Atlanta Hawks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 9; median slot 10; band 8–17; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Jason Terry SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Richard Hamilton COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 10 matched the median projected slot of 10. 5 of 15 listed mocks placed Jason Terry at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
This range of the draft often rewards teams that separate real NBA skills from college reputation. Atlanta Hawks chose Jason Terry because the role projection looked believable on draft night.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Richard Hamilton into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Jason Terry ranks No. 8 in this class.
No. 11: Cleveland Cavaliers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 15-B; median slot 19.5; band 18–24; 14/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Trajan Langdon SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Steve Francis COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 11 was 8.5 places earlier than the median projected slot of 19.5. 0 of 14 listed mocks placed Trajan Langdon at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
This range of the draft often rewards teams that separate real NBA skills from college reputation. Cleveland Cavaliers chose Trajan Langdon because the role projection looked believable on draft night.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Steve Francis into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Trajan Langdon ranks No. 23 in this class.
No. 12: Toronto Raptors
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 10; median slot 12; band 9–19; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Aleksandar Radojevic SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Corey Maggette COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 12 matched the median projected slot of 12. 9 of 15 listed mocks placed Aleksandar Radojevic at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
This range of the draft often rewards teams that separate real NBA skills from college reputation. Toronto Raptors chose Aleksandar Radojevic because the role projection looked believable on draft night.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Corey Maggette into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Aleksandar Radojevic falls outside the featured top 29, which raises the opportunity-cost question even more.
No. 13: Seattle SuperSonics
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 8; median slot 9; band 2–13; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Corey Maggette SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Wally Szczerbiak COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 13 was 4 places later than the median projected slot of 9. 2 of 15 listed mocks placed Corey Maggette at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
This range of the draft often rewards teams that separate real NBA skills from college reputation. Seattle SuperSonics chose Corey Maggette because the role projection looked believable on draft night.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Wally Szczerbiak into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Corey Maggette ranks No. 12 in this class.
No. 14: Minnesota Timberwolves
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 12-A; median slot 14; band 5–20; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Will Avery SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: James Posey COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 14 matched the median projected slot of 14. 7 of 15 listed mocks placed Will Avery at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
This range of the draft often rewards teams that separate real NBA skills from college reputation. Minnesota Timberwolves chose Will Avery because the role projection looked believable on draft night.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves James Posey into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Will Avery falls outside the featured top 29, which raises the opportunity-cost question even more.
No. 15: New York Knicks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 15-A; median slot 19.5; band 15–27; 14/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Frederic Weis SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Jeff Foster COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 15 was 4.5 places earlier than the median projected slot of 19.5. 6 of 14 listed mocks placed Frederic Weis at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
By the middle of the first round, teams were weighing fit against talent. New York Knicks picked Frederic Weis as a player it could plausibly develop into a reliable rotation piece or better.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Jeff Foster into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Frederic Weis falls outside the featured top 29, which raises the opportunity-cost question even more.
No. 16: Chicago Bulls
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 11-A; median slot 13; band 11–16; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Ron Artest SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Kenny Thomas COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 16 was 3 places later than the median projected slot of 13. 1 of 15 listed mocks placed Ron Artest at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
By the middle of the first round, teams were weighing fit against talent. Chicago Bulls picked Ron Artest as a player it could plausibly develop into a reliable rotation piece or better.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Kenny Thomas into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Ron Artest ranks No. 5 in this class.
No. 17: Atlanta Hawks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 19-B; median slot 23; band 21–29; 7/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Cal Bowdler SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Devean George COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 17 was 6 places earlier than the median projected slot of 23. 0 of 7 listed mocks placed Cal Bowdler at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
By the middle of the first round, teams were weighing fit against talent. Atlanta Hawks picked Cal Bowdler as a player it could plausibly develop into a reliable rotation piece or better.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Devean George into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Cal Bowdler ranks No. 28 in this class.
No. 18: Denver Nuggets
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 14; median slot 17; band 13–21; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: James Posey SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Jumaine Jones COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 18 was 1 place later than the median projected slot of 17. 3 of 15 listed mocks placed James Posey at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
By the middle of the first round, teams were weighing fit against talent. Denver Nuggets picked James Posey as a player it could plausibly develop into a reliable rotation piece or better.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Jumaine Jones into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, James Posey ranks No. 14 in this class.
No. 19: Utah Jazz
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 17-A; median slot 21; band 14–29; 14/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Quincy Lewis SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Scott Padgett COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 19 was 2 places earlier than the median projected slot of 21. 2 of 14 listed mocks placed Quincy Lewis at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
By the middle of the first round, teams were weighing fit against talent. Utah Jazz picked Quincy Lewis as a player it could plausibly develop into a reliable rotation piece or better.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Scott Padgett into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Quincy Lewis ranks No. 24 in this class.
No. 20: Atlanta Hawks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 17-C; median slot 21; band 17–25; 9/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Dion Glover SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Jonathan Bender COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 20 was 1 place earlier than the median projected slot of 21. 1 of 9 listed mocks placed Dion Glover at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
By the middle of the first round, teams were weighing fit against talent. Atlanta Hawks picked Dion Glover as a player it could plausibly develop into a reliable rotation piece or better.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Jonathan Bender into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Dion Glover ranks No. 26 in this class.
No. 21: Golden State Warriors
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 26-A; median slot 28; band 28–29; 3/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Jeff Foster SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Tim James COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 21 was 7 places earlier than the median projected slot of 28. 0 of 3 listed mocks placed Jeff Foster at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which Golden State Warriors took Jeff Foster.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Tim James into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Jeff Foster ranks No. 15 in this class.
No. 22: Houston Rockets
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 23-A; median slot 25.5; band 21–28; 8/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Kenny Thomas SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Lee Nailon COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 22 was 3.5 places earlier than the median projected slot of 25.5. 0 of 8 listed mocks placed Kenny Thomas at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which Houston Rockets took Kenny Thomas.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Lee Nailon into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Kenny Thomas ranks No. 16 in this class.
No. 23: Los Angeles Lakers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 23-B; median slot 25.5; band 25–29; 6/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Devean George SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Trajan Langdon COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 23 was 2.5 places earlier than the median projected slot of 25.5. 0 of 6 listed mocks placed Devean George at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which Los Angeles Lakers took Devean George.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Trajan Langdon into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Devean George ranks No. 17 in this class.
No. 24: Utah Jazz
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 25-B; median slot 27; band 27–28; 3/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Andrei Kirilenko SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Quincy Lewis COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 24 was 3 places earlier than the median projected slot of 27. 0 of 3 listed mocks placed Andrei Kirilenko at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which Utah Jazz took Andrei Kirilenko.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Quincy Lewis into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Andrei Kirilenko ranks No. 4 in this class.
No. 25: Miami Heat
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 17-B; median slot 21; band 17–27; 13/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Tim James SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Vonteego Cummings COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 25 was 4 places later than the median projected slot of 21. 2 of 13 listed mocks placed Tim James at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which Miami Heat took Tim James.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Vonteego Cummings into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Tim James ranks No. 21 in this class.
No. 26: Indiana Pacers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 25-A; median slot 27; band 21–29; 6/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Vonteego Cummings SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Dion Glover COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 26 was 1 place earlier than the median projected slot of 27. 1 of 6 listed mocks placed Vonteego Cummings at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which Indiana Pacers took Vonteego Cummings.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Dion Glover into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Vonteego Cummings ranks No. 25 in this class.
No. 27: Atlanta Hawks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 13-A; median slot 16; band 11–21; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Jumaine Jones SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Michael Ruffin COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 27 was 11 places later than the median projected slot of 16. 0 of 15 listed mocks placed Jumaine Jones at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which Atlanta Hawks took Jumaine Jones.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Michael Ruffin into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Jumaine Jones ranks No. 18 in this class.
No. 28: Utah Jazz
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 16; median slot 20; band 19–27; 9/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Scott Padgett SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Cal Bowdler COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock market was saying
The actual selection at No. 28 was 8 places later than the median projected slot of 20. 0 of 9 listed mocks placed Scott Padgett at that exact pick. This compares overall slots, rather than inferring a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which Utah Jazz took Scott Padgett.
What hindsight changes
The hindsight board moves Cal Bowdler into this slot because of the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness. That does not necessarily make the original decision irrational, but it does show the opportunity cost that became clear only after the careers played out.
On the full hindsight board, Scott Padgett ranks No. 19 in this class.
No. 29: San Antonio Spurs
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: No projection in the archived 15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Leon Smith SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Leon Smith COMPARISON VERDICT: NO ARCHIVED PROJECTION
What the mock market was saying
The archive does not list a projection for Leon Smith, so no median-slot comparison is available for the actual selection at No. 29.
Why the team made the actual pick
Late in the first round, most teams are betting on one translatable skill, one swing trait, or one clean role. That is the lens through which San Antonio Spurs took Leon Smith.
What hindsight changes
Hindsight does not force a change here. Leon Smith still gives San Antonio Spurs the best value at this spot once full careers are considered. The case rests on the stronger mix of peak impact, longevity, and overall NBA usefulness.
On the full hindsight board, Leon Smith ranks No. 29 in this class.
What the mock market got right
The historical market still deserves credit where it identified the right talent tier even when the exact order aged poorly. That is the main benefit of preserving a true draft-night baseline: it shows whether the problem was the names themselves, the order, or the entire information environment.
Where teams beat the mocks
The most interesting wins are not always the obvious ones. Sometimes a team beats the public board by selecting a player earlier than the market was comfortable with. Other times the bigger win is simply resisting a noisier consensus and taking the player whose role really translated.
Where hindsight changes the conversation
The classes in this package remind us that NBA drafting is both talent evaluation and development forecasting. A player can look like a sound pick on draft night and still lose value in hindsight if another player from the same range becomes a better long-term answer.
Hindsight top five
- Manu Ginobili
- Shawn Marion
- Elton Brand
- Andrei Kirilenko
- Ron Artest
SEO FAQ
Who should go No. 1 in a 1999 NBA redraft?
Ultimate Big Board's sequential hindsight board puts Manu Ginobili at No. 1 in the 1999 class.
What did mock drafts predict in the 1999 NBA Draft?
The Draft Review's archive separates rank labels from median projected slots. Using actual overall pick equal to median projected slot as the definition of a match, 10 of 29 first-round selections matched; 12 came earlier and 6 later. 1 selection has no archived projection. This is a slot comparison, not a claim that all mocks or a particular team agreed.
Why is the verdict different from the redraft order?
The comparison verdict measures the actual pick against the archived median projected slot. The hindsight board judges career value and reallocates the class from the top down. Matching a median is not a judgment that the original selection was the best career outcome.
What is the biggest lesson from the 1999 NBA Draft?
The biggest lesson is that public consensus, team preference, and eventual player value are three different things. Great draft analysis has to separate them instead of collapsing them into one story.
Full hindsight board
| Hindsight rank | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Manu Ginobili |
| 2 | Shawn Marion |
| 3 | Elton Brand |
| 4 | Andrei Kirilenko |
| 5 | Ron Artest |
| 6 | Baron Davis |
| 7 | Lamar Odom |
| 8 | Jason Terry |
| 9 | Andre Miller |
| 10 | Richard Hamilton |
| 11 | Steve Francis |
| 12 | Corey Maggette |
| 13 | Wally Szczerbiak |
| 14 | James Posey |
| 15 | Jeff Foster |
| 16 | Kenny Thomas |
| 17 | Devean George |
| 18 | Jumaine Jones |
| 19 | Scott Padgett |
| 20 | Jonathan Bender |
| 21 | Tim James |
| 22 | Lee Nailon |
| 23 | Trajan Langdon |
| 24 | Quincy Lewis |
| 25 | Vonteego Cummings |
| 26 | Dion Glover |
| 27 | Michael Ruffin |
| 28 | Cal Bowdler |
| 29 | Leon Smith |
Sources and methodology
- Historical mock baseline: https://www.thedraftreview.com/consensus-mock-draft-archive/1999-nba-draft-consensus-mock-draft
- Actual first-round order and transaction context: historical NBA draft records.
- Hindsight rankings are Ultimate Big Board editorial judgments built around peak value, longevity, two-way impact, postseason utility, role portability, and overall career production.
- Alternate-history notes are interpretive and do not assume every downstream roster move remains unchanged.