2007 NBA Draft Revisited: Oden vs. Durant and the Mock Drafts That Shaped the Night
Revisit the 2007 NBA Draft with a full mock vs actual vs hindsight breakdown for all 30 first-round picks, plus verdicts, scorecards and franchise what-ifs.
The most interesting way to revisit the 2007 NBA Draft is not to pretend the correct answer was obvious. It is to put three versions of the night beside one another: what contemporary mock drafts expected, what the teams actually did, and what a full career of evidence tells us now.
The historical baseline comes from 15 preserved mocks collected by The Draft Review. The top of the 2007 market was unusually rigid: all 15 had Greg Oden first and Kevin Durant second. That makes the Portland debate more interesting, not less, because hindsight changed a near-unanimous evaluation rather than exposing an obvious draft-night reach.
The mock comparison asks whether the actual pick matched, preceded or followed the archived median projected slot. The sequential hindsight board reallocates the whole class using editorial judgments about career value. A median match is a measure of draft-night slot agreement, rather than a career grade.
The three timelines
How to read the mock baseline: The archive orders players by median projected pick, with average pick as a tiebreaker. Its rank labels, including A/B groups, are distinct from projected slots. Each row shows the actual selection's rank, median slot, earliest-to-latest band and number of mocks listing that player. Fractional medians and missing projections are preserved. The comparison verdict measures actual overall pick against that player's median; it does not grade career value or imply that every mock or a particular team agreed. The hindsight board remains a separate editorial judgment.
| Pick | Team | Actual player's archived mock profile | Actual pick | Sequential hindsight pick | Mock slot comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portland Trail Blazers | Archive rank 1; median slot 1; band 1; 15/15 mocks | Greg Oden | Kevin Durant | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 2 | Seattle SuperSonics | Archive rank 2; median slot 2; band 2; 15/15 mocks | Kevin Durant | Al Horford | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 3 | Atlanta Hawks | Archive rank 3; median slot 3; band 3–4; 15/15 mocks | Al Horford | Marc Gasol | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | Archive rank 4; median slot 4; band 4–11; 15/15 mocks | Mike Conley | Mike Conley | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 5 | Boston Celtics | Archive rank 6; median slot 6; band 5–12; 15/15 mocks | Jeff Green | Joakim Noah | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 6 | Milwaukee Bucks | Archive rank 5; median slot 5; band 3–9; 15/15 mocks | Yi Jianlian | Thaddeus Young | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 7 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Archive rank 7; median slot 7; band 4–10; 15/15 mocks | Corey Brewer | Jeff Green | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 8 | Charlotte Bobcats | Archive rank 8-B; median slot 8; band 6–12; 15/15 mocks | Brandan Wright | Wilson Chandler | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 9 | Chicago Bulls | Archive rank 8; median slot 8; band 4–12; 15/15 mocks | Joakim Noah | Arron Afflalo | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 10 | Sacramento Kings | Archive rank 9; median slot 9; band 7–12; 15/15 mocks | Spencer Hawes | Tiago Splitter | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 11 | Atlanta Hawks | Archive rank 10; median slot 11; band 11–19; 15/15 mocks | Acie Law | Jared Dudley | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 12 | Philadelphia 76ers | Archive rank 16-A; median slot 18; band 12–29; 14/15 mocks | Thaddeus Young | Rodney Stuckey | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 13 | New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets | Archive rank 13-A; median slot 14; band 9–21; 15/15 mocks | Julian Wright | Corey Brewer | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 14 | Los Angeles Clippers | Archive rank 11; median slot 12; band 10–18; 15/15 mocks | Al Thornton | Nick Young | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 15 | Detroit Pistons | Archive rank 14; median slot 15; band 15–19; 15/15 mocks | Rodney Stuckey | Marco Belinelli | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 16 | Washington Wizards | Archive rank 12; median slot 13; band 13–16; 15/15 mocks | Nick Young | Carl Landry | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 17 | New Jersey Nets | Archive rank 18-A; median slot 21; band 17–30; 15/15 mocks | Sean Williams | Aaron Brooks | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 18 | Golden State Warriors | Archive rank 22-A; median slot 25; band 15–30; 13/15 mocks | Marco Belinelli | Spencer Hawes | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 19 | Los Angeles Lakers | Archive rank 13-B; median slot 14; band 11–20; 15/15 mocks | Javaris Crittenton | Glen Davis | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 20 | Miami Heat | Archive rank 15; median slot 17; band 16–21; 15/15 mocks | Jason Smith | Al Thornton | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 21 | Philadelphia 76ers | Archive rank 19; median slot 22.5; band 18–30; 10/15 mocks | Daequan Cook | Ramon Sessions | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 22 | Charlotte Bobcats | Archive rank 26-B; median slot 28; band 22–30; 7/15 mocks | Jared Dudley | Brandan Wright | PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN |
| 23 | New York Knicks | Archive rank 20; median slot 23; band 22–27; 14/15 mocks | Wilson Chandler | Jason Smith | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 24 | Phoenix Suns | Archive rank 21-B; median slot 24; band 18–30; 14/15 mocks | Rudy Fernandez | Rudy Fernandez | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 25 | Utah Jazz | Archive rank 22-B; median slot 25; band 21–28; 12/15 mocks | Morris Almond | Josh McRoberts | PICK MATCHED MEDIAN |
| 26 | Houston Rockets | Archive rank 22-C; median slot 25; band 24–26; 2/15 mocks | Aaron Brooks | Daequan Cook | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 27 | Detroit Pistons | Archive rank 21-C; median slot 24; band 21–27; 4/15 mocks | Arron Afflalo | Yi Jianlian | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 28 | San Antonio Spurs | Archive rank 21-A; median slot 24; band 21–30; 15/15 mocks | Tiago Splitter | Aaron Gray | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 29 | Phoenix Suns | Archive rank 26-C; median slot 28; band 25–29; 6/15 mocks | Alando Tucker | Greg Oden | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
| 30 | Philadelphia 76ers | Archive rank 26-A; median slot 28; band 24–30; 10/15 mocks | Petteri Koponen | Dominic McGuire | PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN |
Mock Draft Scorecard
A match means the actual overall pick equals that player's median projected slot. Earlier and later picks use the same median; missing projections remain explicit. These counts do not grade career value.
| Actual pick versus mock median | First-round selections |
|---|---|
| PICK MATCHED MEDIAN | 11 |
| PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN | 7 |
| PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN | 12 |
| NO ARCHIVED PROJECTION | 0 |
Pick-by-pick: Mock vs. Actual vs. Hindsight
No. 1: Portland Trail Blazers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 1; median slot 1; band 1; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Greg Oden SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Kevin Durant COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Greg Oden: Archive rank 1; median slot 1; band 1; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 1 selection matched the median. 15 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Portland's choice was not a reckless reach. Oden was a 19-year-old center with elite defensive tools, unusual mobility and a dominant freshman season. The Blazers already had Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, so the idea of adding a franchise center to that pair looked like the cleanest possible roster construction.
What hindsight changes
A full-career redraft now prefers Kevin Durant at this slot. The career judgment is separate from the archived mock median.
Durant is the unavoidable hindsight choice. His scoring, longevity and championship-level peak overwhelm the case for any other player in the class. The alternate history is also unusually direct: Roy, Durant and Aldridge would give Portland three elite offensive talents at complementary positions. Roy's knees still matter, but Durant's durability and superstar production could keep the window open long after the actual Oden-Roy build collapsed.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Oden | 3 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 0.5 |
| Kevin Durant | 18 | 27.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 |
No. 2: Seattle SuperSonics
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 2; median slot 2; band 2; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Kevin Durant SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Al Horford COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Kevin Durant: Archive rank 2; median slot 2; band 2; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 2 selection matched the median. 15 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Seattle got the evaluation right. Durant immediately became the franchise's centerpiece and then moved with the club to Oklahoma City. In a redraft where Portland removes him, the Sonics lose the player who defined the next decade of the organization.
What hindsight changes
A full-career redraft now prefers Al Horford at this slot. The career judgment is separate from the archived mock median.
Horford is the best remaining foundational piece. His passing, defense, shooting development and 19-season adaptability would fit almost any rebuild. He would not replace Durant's scoring gravity, so the young Thunder timeline changes radically. There is likely no identical Westbrook-Durant-Harden core, and the franchise may stay in the lottery longer while building around a two-way big instead of a transcendent wing.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 18 | 27.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 |
| Al Horford | 19 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.2 |
No. 3: Atlanta Hawks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 3; median slot 3; band 3–4; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Al Horford SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Marc Gasol COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Al Horford: Archive rank 3; median slot 3; band 3–4; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 3 selection matched the median. 14 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The Hawks made an excellent pick. Horford became a five-time All-Star, defended multiple positions and supplied exactly the high-IQ interior play Atlanta needed next to Joe Johnson and Josh Smith.
What hindsight changes
A full-career redraft now prefers Marc Gasol at this slot. The career judgment is separate from the archived mock median.
With Horford gone, Marc Gasol is the rare substitute who preserves the logic while changing the style. Gasol fell to No. 48, then became a Defensive Player of the Year, three-time All-Star and elite passer. Atlanta would get more size and half-court orchestration, although Gasol's later NBA arrival would slow the immediate payoff. A Johnson-Smith-Gasol core could become one of the East's most difficult defensive frontcourts.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford | 19 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.2 |
| Marc Gasol | 13 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 |
No. 4: Memphis Grizzlies
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 4; median slot 4; band 4–11; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Mike Conley SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Mike Conley COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Mike Conley: Archive rank 4; median slot 4; band 4–11; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 4 selection matched the median. 10 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Memphis should keep the pick. Conley took time to develop, but he became the steady organizer for the Grit and Grind era, made an All-Star team and lasted 19 seasons. That kind of continuity matters more than a small statistical edge from a player with a worse roster fit.
What hindsight changes
The mock market, the team and the hindsight board all land on Mike Conley. This is the rare clean hit where the projection and the real decision aged together.
The what-if is therefore about patience, not replacement. Memphis endured early criticism because Conley was not instantly dominant. Keeping him in the redraft reinforces the lesson that young point guards often need years to learn pace, pick-and-roll reads and late-game control. Without Conley, the later Gasol-Randolph teams lose the guard who connected their offense.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Conley | 19 | 13.6 | 2.9 | 5.5 |
| Mike Conley | 19 | 13.6 | 2.9 | 5.5 |
No. 5: Boston Celtics
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 6; median slot 6; band 5–12; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Jeff Green SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Joakim Noah COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Jeff Green: Archive rank 6; median slot 6; band 5–12; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 5 selection was 1 place earlier than the median. 5 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The official logo at No. 5 can be misleading. Boston's objective was veteran star power, and Green's rights were one of the central assets sent to Seattle for Ray Allen. That deal helped create the 2008 champion.
What hindsight changes
The mock market pointed to Yi Jianlian, the team chose Jeff Green, and the hindsight board now prefers Joakim Noah. None of the three timelines line up.
If the pick has to be kept, Noah is the best remaining talent and a fascinating fit. His passing, rebounding and defensive intensity would complement Paul Pierce and later Kevin Garnett, but keeping him means changing the Allen trade package. Boston cannot simply add Noah to the exact 2008 roster while also receiving Allen. The redraft improves the rookie, but the actual transaction still produced the outcome every contender is trying to reach.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Green | 18 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| Joakim Noah | 13 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 2.8 |
No. 6: Milwaukee Bucks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 5; median slot 5; band 3–9; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Yi Jianlian SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Thaddeus Young COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Yi Jianlian: Archive rank 5; median slot 5; band 3–9; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 6 selection was 1 place later than the median. 2 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Milwaukee chased international upside and positional size. Yi could shoot, run and handle better than most big men his age, but the relationship began awkwardly and his NBA game never became efficient enough to justify the investment.
What hindsight changes
The mock market pointed to Jeff Green, the team chose Yi Jianlian, and the hindsight board now prefers Thaddeus Young. None of the three timelines line up.
Young gives Milwaukee a 17-season forward who could defend, finish, run the floor and adjust his role as the league changed. He would fit beside Michael Redd without demanding the offense. More importantly, he supplies stability to a franchise that spent much of the next several years rotating through forwards while searching for a durable identity.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yi Jianlian | 5 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 0.7 |
| Thaddeus Young | 17 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 |
No. 7: Minnesota Timberwolves
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 7; median slot 7; band 4–10; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Corey Brewer SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Jeff Green COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Corey Brewer: Archive rank 7; median slot 7; band 4–10; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 7 selection matched the median. 4 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Brewer made sense for a team nearing the end of the Kevin Garnett era. He brought length, transition speed and a championship pedigree, but his half-court offense remained inconsistent.
What hindsight changes
A full-career redraft now prefers Jeff Green at this slot. The career judgment is separate from the archived mock median.
Green offers more scoring and positional flexibility. His heart surgery later interrupted his career, yet he still played 18 seasons and became a valuable multi-position forward. In the post-Garnett rebuild, Minnesota would have a steadier scoring wing and a player who could survive multiple roster iterations. That could reduce the temptation to chase short-term scoring fixes through trades.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Brewer | 13 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Jeff Green | 18 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
No. 8: Charlotte Bobcats
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 8-B; median slot 8; band 6–12; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Brandan Wright SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Wilson Chandler COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Brandan Wright: Archive rank 8-B; median slot 8; band 6–12; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 8 selection matched the median. 5 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Charlotte was trying to accelerate rather than wait. Richardson gave the Bobcats a proven scorer, so the value of this pick must be considered as trade currency rather than as Wright's development in Charlotte.
What hindsight changes
A full-career redraft now prefers Wilson Chandler at this slot. The career judgment is separate from the archived mock median.
Chandler is a more attractive long-term wing asset. He became a 12-season two-way forward who could score, rebound and guard multiple positions. If Charlotte still prefers the Richardson trade, Chandler's rights may carry similar or better appeal. If it keeps him, Chandler fits the Wallace-Okafor core and allows the team to grow without spending a premium asset on a veteran.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandan Wright | 10 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| Wilson Chandler | 12 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 |
No. 9: Chicago Bulls
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 8; median slot 8; band 4–12; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Joakim Noah SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Arron Afflalo COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Joakim Noah: Archive rank 8; median slot 8; band 4–12; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 9 selection was 1 place later than the median. 5 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The Bulls nailed this pick. Noah became the emotional and defensive center of the Rose-era teams, won Defensive Player of the Year and made two All-Star teams. His playmaking from center also became more valuable as the league evolved.
What hindsight changes
The actual selection aged better than the mock-market alternative. Even though the sequential redraft may move Joakim Noah earlier, this is a spot where the team saw more than the consensus did.
Because Noah is gone earlier in this redraft, Afflalo becomes the best fit left. He was a reliable 3-and-D wing who later grew into a 10.8-point career scorer. Chicago would gain shooting and perimeter defense, but it loses the interior engine that made Tom Thibodeau's best defenses work. This is one of the slots where the real franchise result was better than the redraft leftovers.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joakim Noah | 13 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 2.8 |
| Arron Afflalo | 11 | 10.8 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
No. 10: Sacramento Kings
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 9; median slot 9; band 7–12; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Spencer Hawes SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Tiago Splitter COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Spencer Hawes: Archive rank 9; median slot 9; band 7–12; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 10 selection was 1 place later than the median. 6 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Sacramento was trying to rebuild the frontcourt after the Webber era and took a skilled local big who could eventually space the floor. Hawes had a respectable 10-season career, but never became a defensive anchor.
What hindsight changes
The mock market pointed to Acie Law, the team chose Spencer Hawes, and the hindsight board now prefers Tiago Splitter. None of the three timelines line up.
Splitter offers less perimeter skill and more reliable interior function. He screened, defended, passed within structure and became a championship starter in San Antonio. For Sacramento, that means a center who can support other creators rather than needing the offense tailored around him. The Kings would still need a star, but Splitter gives the rebuild a sturdier defensive base.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Hawes | 10 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Tiago Splitter | 7 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 1.2 |
No. 11: Atlanta Hawks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 10; median slot 11; band 11–19; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Acie Law SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Jared Dudley COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Acie Law: Archive rank 10; median slot 11; band 11–19; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 11 selection matched the median. 10 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The pick addressed the right problem. The Hawks had famously passed on Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2005, and Law looked like an older, ready-made answer. The NBA athleticism and shot creation did not translate strongly enough.
What hindsight changes
The mock market pointed to Al Thornton, the team chose Acie Law, and the hindsight board now prefers Jared Dudley. None of the three timelines line up.
Dudley gives Atlanta a long-career connector instead. He could defend wings, space the floor and make quick decisions without taking the ball from Joe Johnson. He does not solve point guard, so Atlanta still needs Mike Bibby or another organizer, but the pick becomes a useful playoff role player rather than a failed attempt to force a positional need.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acie Law | 4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Jared Dudley | 14 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
No. 12: Philadelphia 76ers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 16-A; median slot 18; band 12–29; 14/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Thaddeus Young SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Rodney Stuckey COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Thaddeus Young: Archive rank 16-A; median slot 18; band 12–29; 14/15 mocks. The actual No. 12 selection was 6 places earlier than the median. 1 of 14 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The 76ers got strong value. Young became a 17-season forward and stayed useful as his role shifted from athletic slasher to veteran small-ball big.
What hindsight changes
The actual selection aged better than the mock-market alternative. Even though the sequential redraft may move Thaddeus Young earlier, this is a spot where the team saw more than the consensus did.
With Young gone earlier, Stuckey offers a bigger guard who can get into the lane and defend either backcourt spot. Philadelphia's young core needed creation, and Stuckey could share those duties with Andre Iguodala. He never became an All-Star, but ten seasons of competent guard play would still be a successful result at No. 12.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thaddeus Young | 17 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 |
| Rodney Stuckey | 10 | 12.6 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
No. 13: New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 13-A; median slot 14; band 9–21; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Julian Wright SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Corey Brewer COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Julian Wright: Archive rank 13-A; median slot 14; band 9–21; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 13 selection was 1 place earlier than the median. 3 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The idea was attractive: add a long, versatile wing who could run with Paul and defend across positions. Wright never developed enough shooting or offensive confidence to stay in the rotation of a contender.
What hindsight changes
A full-career redraft now prefers Corey Brewer at this slot. The career judgment is separate from the archived mock median.
Brewer brings a clearer version of the same transition-and-defense concept. His jumper was inconsistent too, but his speed and defensive activity translated for 13 seasons. Paul would have maximized Brewer's cutting and open-court game, giving the Hornets a useful wing for the 2008 contention window.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Wright | 4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Corey Brewer | 13 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
No. 14: Los Angeles Clippers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 11; median slot 12; band 10–18; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Al Thornton SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Nick Young COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Al Thornton: Archive rank 11; median slot 12; band 10–18; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 14 selection was 2 places later than the median. 2 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The Clippers wanted an NBA-ready scorer after injuries disrupted the momentum of their 2006 playoff run. Thornton delivered points quickly, but the team around him declined and he did not develop into a broader two-way piece.
What hindsight changes
In the editorial career comparison, Rodney Stuckey produced more long-term value than Al Thornton, even though the sequential hindsight board ultimately prefers Nick Young. That career judgment is separate from the mock-slot comparison.
Young offers a longer scoring career and more three-point volume. The defensive issues remain, so this does not solve the Clippers' structural problems. It does give them a bench scorer who can survive roster turnover and provide spacing around Elton Brand or later frontcourt pieces.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Thornton | 4 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| Nick Young | 12 | 11.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
No. 15: Detroit Pistons
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 14; median slot 15; band 15–19; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Rodney Stuckey SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Marco Belinelli COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Rodney Stuckey: Archive rank 14; median slot 15; band 15–19; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 15 selection matched the median. 13 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Detroit viewed Stuckey as part of the succession plan behind Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton. He became a useful 10-year guard, though not the next franchise lead guard the organization hoped to uncover.
What hindsight changes
The actual selection aged better than the mock-market alternative. Even though the sequential redraft may move Rodney Stuckey earlier, this is a spot where the team saw more than the consensus did.
Belinelli would give the veteran Pistons more shooting and movement. His 13-season career included a title in San Antonio, and his skill could have kept Detroit's half-court offense wider. The trade-off is less on-ball creation, but a veteran contender already had Billups and Hamilton to handle those duties.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Stuckey | 10 | 12.6 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| Marco Belinelli | 13 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
No. 16: Washington Wizards
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 12; median slot 13; band 13–16; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Nick Young SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Carl Landry COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Nick Young: Archive rank 12; median slot 13; band 13–16; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 16 selection was 3 places later than the median. 2 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The Wizards already had Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, so Young did not need to become a primary option immediately. He eventually built a long career as a scorer, but his defense and decision-making limited his playoff value.
What hindsight changes
In the editorial career comparison, Thaddeus Young / Jermareo Davidson produced more long-term value than Nick Young, even though the sequential hindsight board ultimately prefers Carl Landry. That career judgment is separate from the mock-slot comparison.
Landry gives Washington interior scoring and toughness instead. He was one of the best second-round players in the class and could punish switches or second units. That is useful for a team whose playoff matchups often exposed frontcourt depth. He also provides a more stable complementary role next to the three established scorers.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Young | 12 | 11.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Carl Landry | 9 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 0.7 |
No. 17: New Jersey Nets
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 18-A; median slot 21; band 17–30; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Sean Williams SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Aaron Brooks COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Sean Williams: Archive rank 18-A; median slot 21; band 17–30; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 17 selection was 4 places earlier than the median. 5 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
New Jersey's veteran core needed athleticism at center, and Williams looked capable of becoming a high-level rim protector. The flashes were real, but off-court and developmental issues kept the role small.
What hindsight changes
The mock market pointed to Gabe Pruitt, the team chose Sean Williams, and the hindsight board now prefers Aaron Brooks. None of the three timelines line up.
Brooks gives the Nets speed and shot creation behind an aging Jason Kidd. He later won Most Improved Player and proved he could run an NBA offense. That makes the succession plan more credible and provides insurance if the Kidd era ends sooner, as it ultimately did in 2008.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Williams | 4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| Aaron Brooks | 10 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 |
No. 18: Golden State Warriors
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 22-A; median slot 25; band 15–30; 13/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Marco Belinelli SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Spencer Hawes COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Marco Belinelli: Archive rank 22-A; median slot 25; band 15–30; 13/15 mocks. The actual No. 18 selection was 7 places earlier than the median. 1 of 13 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
In Don Nelson's offense, the appeal was obvious. Belinelli could shoot on the move and handle enough to attack a closeout. His best NBA years came after leaving Golden State, but the skill was real.
What hindsight changes
The actual selection aged better than the mock-market alternative. Even though the sequential redraft may move Marco Belinelli earlier, this is a spot where the team saw more than the consensus did.
Hawes gives the Warriors a passing big who could stretch the floor and facilitate from the elbows. He is not a natural fit for the tiny 'We Believe' identity defensively, but his skill could offer a different look when the game slowed down. Golden State might value him more once the roster begins transitioning away from that 2007 group.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Belinelli | 13 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Spencer Hawes | 10 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
No. 19: Los Angeles Lakers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 13-B; median slot 14; band 11–20; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Javaris Crittenton SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Glen Davis COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Javaris Crittenton: Archive rank 13-B; median slot 14; band 11–20; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 19 selection was 5 places later than the median. 3 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The rookie barely had time to develop in Los Angeles because his rights value became useful in the Pau Gasol trade. That transaction is the central context for the pick.
What hindsight changes
The mock market pointed to Daequan Cook, the team chose Javaris Crittenton, and the hindsight board now prefers Glen Davis. None of the three timelines line up.
Davis is a more immediately useful rotation big and later played meaningful minutes for the champion Celtics. If Los Angeles keeps him, he can back up Lamar Odom and later Gasol. But removing Crittenton from the real trade package means the Gasol deal cannot simply be assumed to happen unchanged. The alternate history must preserve that cost.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javaris Crittenton | 2 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Glen Davis | 8 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 |
No. 20: Miami Heat
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 15; median slot 17; band 16–21; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Jason Smith SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Al Thornton COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Jason Smith: Archive rank 15; median slot 17; band 16–21; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 20 selection was 3 places later than the median. 1 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Miami was one year removed from a title but had an aging roster and needed athletic scoring around Dwyane Wade. The team used this transaction to land Cook, a younger shooter.
What hindsight changes
In the editorial career comparison, Wilson Chandler produced more long-term value than Jason Smith, even though the sequential hindsight board ultimately prefers Al Thornton. That career judgment is separate from the mock-slot comparison.
Thornton offers a more ready-made scoring forward. His short peak could help bridge the declining Shaq-era roster to the 2010 cap-space reset. The Heat still need to protect flexibility, but Thornton's ability to create a shot gives Wade a little more help without requiring a major contract.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Smith | 11 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| Al Thornton | 4 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
No. 21: Philadelphia 76ers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 19; median slot 22.5; band 18–30; 10/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Daequan Cook SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Ramon Sessions COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Daequan Cook: Archive rank 19; median slot 22.5; band 18–30; 10/15 mocks. The actual No. 21 selection was 1.5 places earlier than the median. 2 of 10 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Philadelphia's actual interest was Smith, a mobile big who could complement its athletic young wings. The rights exchange therefore matters more than Cook's eventual role.
What hindsight changes
In the editorial career comparison, Tiago Splitter / Rudy Fernandez / Arron Afflalo produced more long-term value than Daequan Cook, even though the sequential hindsight board ultimately prefers Ramon Sessions. That career judgment is separate from the mock-slot comparison.
Sessions gives the Sixers a genuine lead guard. He produced immediately as a second-round rookie in Milwaukee and eventually played 11 seasons. On a team with Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller and later young perimeter pieces, Sessions could either succeed Miller or become a trade asset instead of forcing another search for ballhandling.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daequan Cook | 6 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Ramon Sessions | 11 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
No. 22: Charlotte Bobcats
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 26-B; median slot 28; band 22–30; 7/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Jared Dudley SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Brandan Wright COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK EARLIER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Jared Dudley: Archive rank 26-B; median slot 28; band 22–30; 7/15 mocks. The actual No. 22 selection was 6 places earlier than the median. 1 of 7 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Charlotte drafted Dudley and later found real value in him, but the earlier Wright-Richardson deal is the bigger draft-night story. The Bobcats were trying to become respectable quickly.
What hindsight changes
The actual selection aged better than the mock-market alternative. Even though the sequential redraft may move Jared Dudley earlier, this is a spot where the team saw more than the consensus did.
With Dudley gone, Wright returns to this slot at a much more comfortable price. His efficiency as a finisher and shot blocker becomes useful instead of disappointing. Charlotte could keep the young big or use him as an asset without needing him to justify a top-eight selection.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Dudley | 14 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| Brandan Wright | 10 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
No. 23: New York Knicks
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 20; median slot 23; band 22–27; 14/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Wilson Chandler SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Jason Smith COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Wilson Chandler: Archive rank 20; median slot 23; band 22–27; 14/15 mocks. The actual No. 23 selection matched the median. 12 of 14 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
This was one of the better selections of the Isiah Thomas era. Chandler became a long, athletic two-way forward and later helped headline the trade package for Carmelo Anthony.
What hindsight changes
The actual selection aged better than the mock-market alternative. Even though the sequential redraft may move Wilson Chandler earlier, this is a spot where the team saw more than the consensus did.
With Chandler gone, Smith gives New York size, shooting development and 11 seasons of rotation-level center play. He is not a future trade centerpiece like Chandler, so the 2011 Anthony deal would need different assets. That is a meaningful cost even if Smith is a useful player.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson Chandler | 12 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 |
| Jason Smith | 11 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
No. 24: Phoenix Suns
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 21-B; median slot 24; band 18–30; 14/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Rudy Fernandez SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Rudy Fernandez COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Rudy Fernandez: Archive rank 21-B; median slot 24; band 18–30; 14/15 mocks. The actual No. 24 selection matched the median. 3 of 14 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The Suns should keep the player if forced to make the pick for themselves. Fernandez's passing, transition play and shooting were perfect stylistically for a Nash-led offense. His four NBA seasons understate how talented he was as a basketball player.
What hindsight changes
The useful comparison becomes the actual pick against the hindsight redraft choice, Rudy Fernandez.
The real issue is organizational. Phoenix repeatedly moved draft assets during a championship window. Keeping Fernandez gives the Suns cheap wing depth and another creative passer. That does not guarantee a title, but it reduces the burden on aging perimeter veterans and makes the bench more dynamic.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Fernandez | 4 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Rudy Fernandez | 4 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
No. 25: Utah Jazz
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 22-B; median slot 25; band 21–28; 12/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Morris Almond SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Josh McRoberts COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK MATCHED MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Morris Almond: Archive rank 22-B; median slot 25; band 21–28; 12/15 mocks. The actual No. 25 selection matched the median. 6 of 12 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Utah needed bench scoring and shooting around Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. Almond's college production made sense, but he could not defend or create enough separation to stay on the floor.
What hindsight changes
The useful comparison becomes the actual pick against the hindsight redraft choice, Josh McRoberts.
McRoberts gives Jerry Sloan a very different tool: a passing big who screens, rebounds and keeps the ball moving. His 11-season career came from connective skills rather than scoring. That profile fits Utah's structured offense and gives the frontcourt a more versatile reserve.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morris Almond | 3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Josh McRoberts | 11 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
No. 26: Houston Rockets
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 22-C; median slot 25; band 24–26; 2/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Aaron Brooks SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Daequan Cook COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Aaron Brooks: Archive rank 22-C; median slot 25; band 24–26; 2/15 mocks. The actual No. 26 selection was 1 place later than the median. 1 of 2 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
The Rockets made a strong pick. Brooks eventually won Most Improved Player and produced a 19.6-point season, giving Houston badly needed creation as the Yao-McGrady era unraveled.
What hindsight changes
The useful comparison becomes the actual pick against the hindsight redraft choice, Daequan Cook.
Cook is the best shooter left with a meaningful career. He would stretch the floor around Yao and McGrady, but he cannot reproduce Brooks' on-ball value. Houston would need to find a point guard elsewhere, so the real result at No. 26 remains better than the redraft alternative.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 10 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 |
| Daequan Cook | 6 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
No. 27: Detroit Pistons
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 21-C; median slot 24; band 21–27; 4/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Arron Afflalo SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Yi Jianlian COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Arron Afflalo: Archive rank 21-C; median slot 24; band 21–27; 4/15 mocks. The actual No. 27 selection was 3 places later than the median. 1 of 4 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Detroit identified a legitimate long-term starter, then moved him too early. Afflalo later became a double-digit scorer and reliable two-way wing.
What hindsight changes
The useful comparison becomes the actual pick against the hindsight redraft choice, Yi Jianlian.
Yi at No. 27 is a much more reasonable gamble than Yi at No. 6. His size and shooting flashes could help a frontcourt beginning to age, and the financial downside is smaller. Detroit loses Afflalo's dependable perimeter role, but gains a developmental big with enough talent to justify a late-first swing.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arron Afflalo | 11 | 10.8 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Yi Jianlian | 5 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 0.7 |
No. 28: San Antonio Spurs
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 21-A; median slot 24; band 21–30; 15/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Tiago Splitter SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Aaron Gray COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Tiago Splitter: Archive rank 21-A; median slot 24; band 21–30; 15/15 mocks. The actual No. 28 selection was 4 places later than the median. 1 of 15 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
San Antonio got exactly what it wanted. Splitter eventually arrived as a mature center, became a starter and contributed to the 2014 championship. The delayed arrival fit a veteran team that could afford to wait.
What hindsight changes
The useful comparison becomes the actual pick against the hindsight redraft choice, Aaron Gray.
Gray is a lower-ceiling conventional reserve center. He supplies size and screens, but not Splitter's mobility or passing. The redraft weakens San Antonio here, which is another reminder that the Spurs already found first-round value others overlooked.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Splitter | 7 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 1.2 |
| Aaron Gray | 7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
No. 29: Phoenix Suns
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 26-C; median slot 28; band 25–29; 6/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Alando Tucker SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Greg Oden COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Alando Tucker: Archive rank 26-C; median slot 28; band 25–29; 6/15 mocks. The actual No. 29 selection was 1 place later than the median. 2 of 6 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
Oden's career was devastated by injuries, but at No. 29 the risk equation changes completely. Phoenix had an elite medical reputation and a veteran contender that could wait on rehab rather than need immediate production.
What hindsight changes
The useful comparison becomes the actual pick against the hindsight redraft choice, Greg Oden.
If any team could justify taking the chance, this version of the Suns could. Even limited Oden minutes would give Phoenix interior size it often lacked behind Amar'e Stoudemire. There is no guarantee the medical outcome changes, but the downside of the gamble is tiny compared with the original No. 1 investment.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alando Tucker | 3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Greg Oden | 3 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 0.5 |
No. 30: Philadelphia 76ers
ARCHIVED MOCK PROFILE: Archive rank 26-A; median slot 28; band 24–30; 10/15 mocks ACTUAL PICK: Petteri Koponen SEQUENTIAL HINDSIGHT PICK: Dominic McGuire COMPARISON VERDICT: PICK LATER THAN MEDIAN
What the mock drafts were saying
Petteri Koponen: Archive rank 26-A; median slot 28; band 24–30; 10/15 mocks. The actual No. 30 selection was 2 places later than the median. 1 of 10 listed mocks placed the player at that exact overall pick. This does not infer a team-specific prediction from the archive rank.
Why the team made the actual choice
At No. 30, the strategy was reasonable: take a young guard who could stay overseas while the team preserves roster flexibility. Koponen never played in the NBA, so the asset never turned into on-court value.
What hindsight changes
The useful comparison becomes the actual pick against the hindsight redraft choice, Dominic McGuire.
McGuire offers six seasons of defense, rebounding and positional size. His offense is limited, but a team built around athletic wings could use another defender on a cheap contract. The ceiling is modest, which is appropriate for the final pick of a class after most of the long-term rotation players are gone.
Career snapshot
| Player | NBA seasons | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petteri Koponen | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dominic McGuire | 6 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
What the mock market got right
The 2007 market was exceptionally accurate at the very top. Oden, Durant, Horford and Conley were all placed where or very near where they were selected. The biggest later disagreement is not evidence that the mocks were careless; it is evidence that career health and long-term development can overwhelm even a highly stable pre-draft consensus.
Where the teams beat the mocks
Indiana, Detroit and several teams in the back half of the round found useful players who either matched or exceeded their consensus position. The best team-level story remains the franchises that understood role value, not just raw upside.
Where nobody had it
Marc Gasol is the class's great hindsight disruption. A future Defensive Player of the Year lasting until No. 48 means neither the first-round mock market nor the actual first-round order captured the eventual shape of the class.
Why this matters for Ultimate Big Board
For Ultimate Big Board, the 2007 class is valuable because the historical mock record can become structured data rather than a footnote. Saving the publication, writer, projected slot, actual slot and hindsight rank makes it possible to build future features such as historical mock accuracy, team-versus-consensus performance, biggest draft-night surprises and long-term prospect movement.
Sources and methodology
- Historical mock consensus: The Draft Review, https://www.thedraftreview.com/consensus-mock-draft-archive/2007-consensus
- The Draft Review states that the consensus is derived from 15 preserved mock drafts and ordered primarily by median projected slot, then average projected slot.
- Actual draft order and career data: Basketball-Reference, https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2007.html
- Draft-night rights trades are discussed in the pick commentary when the team shown in the official draft ledger was selecting for another club.
- The verdict and hindsight redraft are Ultimate Big Board editorial judgments based on career value, peak, longevity, defense, playoff usefulness, role portability and franchise context.
- Tied mock-market slots are preserved as split consensus tiers. Late first-round slots without a stable aggregate signal are labeled accordingly rather than inventing a single prediction.
FAQ
What did mock drafts predict in the 2007 NBA Draft?
The source is The Draft Review's archived 15-mock consensus. This article reports each actual selection's archive rank separately from its median projected slot and projection band, then compares the actual pick with that median.
Is the hindsight pick the same thing as saying the team made the wrong decision?
No. The hindsight redraft uses information that was not available on draft night. The article separately evaluates whether the original choice was reasonable at the time, which is why a defensible pick can still move in a full-career redraft.
How does the mock comparison differ from the hindsight board?
The comparison verdict measures actual overall pick against the archived median projected slot. It does not grade career value. The sequential hindsight board reallocates the class using editorial judgments about careers, so the two measures answer different questions.